I'm Ann, from the team here at Shopify :)
While we wouldn't be able to tell you the probability of an order getting a chargeback, what I can tell you is a few extra steps you can take in order to make the best decision here.
Any time you see a flag set on the account for any reason you should be careful to verify the customer via telephone if possible, or email, before shipping anything out. It's better to be on the safe side than risk high chargeback rates which can cause losses on multiple levels.
Something else to keep an eye on is the Billing Address and Shipping Address. If the billing address is in the United States, but the shipping address is in a country such as Pakistan or Russia, you may have a fraudulent order. You can also look for are names between shipping/billing being different or the billing address not matching what is on file with the credit card company. In this case, again, I would recommend reaching out to the customer before sending out the order to see if there is any explanation they can give for this, then choose to fulfill or cancel the order based on that.
We have a great page in our Shopify Manual that goes over this in more detail, check it out here.
In the future, if you would like to get even more in depth with your fraud prevention methods, you can also implement one of the many fraud prevention apps we have available via the Shopify App Store such as:
It might also be worth taking a look at this article in our Shopify Manual on how to force the shipping address and billing address to match on customer orders.
Additionally, if you are using the Shopify Payments gateway, make sure to enable rejection for orders that fail CVV by logging in to your account and then go to settings > payment providers > 'edit' under the Shopify Payments tab. From there click the checkbox for 'Decline charges that fail CVV verification.' and it would also be worthwhile clicking 'Decline charges that fail ZIP code verification.'
I hope this helps! If you have any more questions or concerns feel free to reach out to us on this thread :)
Have a great one,
adding to what Ann has said, there are two things you can do to increase the security of your store:
1. Ensure that your customers enter their CCV as well as their ZIP code properly. This can usually be achieved through your payment provider settings
2. I highly recommend installing "FraudBlock", which automatically cancels fraudulent orders so you don't have to worry about fulfilling them: https://apps.shopify.com/fraudblock-fraud-prevention
We have a library item for this as a starting point, but you can adjust it as needed. You can add tags to the order or the customer, email yourself, email the customer, restock the order, refund the order, send it to Google Sheets... whatever fits your use case. https://www.apps.bonify.io/arigato-automation-shopify/workflows/cancel-order-and-email-me-if-order-r...