Since using Shopify we have had several chargebacks. From all, one was a high fraud risk order that we shouldn't have shipped, one was from an order that was in backorder and the customer "cancelled" than way (they didn't contact us to cancel directly). But all the other ones are orders when someone didn't recognize the charge initially and then cancel the chargeback or a recent one when the customer wanted a refund on a non-returnable item. All of them we have lost them while we have documentation on shipping/receiving the order, store policies, records of communications with customer prior to purchase telling them the item was non-returnable, etc. At last one of them ensure they had cancelled the chargeback and we never got anything back.
Has anyone won a chargeback with Shopify Payments? Or had a different experience? I was told to contact the customer's bank but we do not have that information. In comparison, we have only had one dispute with Paypal and that went our way as the hold the money and you have a better chance to deal with the customer.
We typicall have about a 50% reversal rate. The issue is that it often takes a full 75 days. Ive had customer return an item, get a refund and then go and file a chargeback on top of that, and it still take this long. I cannot find a solid reason why some are denied and others are reversed though to answer your question. I think it just boils down to their institutions decision provided all proof of delivery etc has been met.