I saw some scary-looking numbers and wanted to get a sense of how small Shopify stores are experiencing this.
The CBI’s June 2026 (UK source) retail sales balance came in at -54, the weakest reading since 1983. Reuters is linking it to low consumer sentiment and rising cost pressures. (Sources in first comment).
PwC’s Spring 2026 (also UK focussed) consumer sentiment says that nine in ten consumers now name cost of living as their biggest concern.
But it’s not just UK. McKinsey found 79% of consumers globally are trading down.
People haven’t stopped spending, but they’re spending more selectively, and mostly on essentials. We all individually feel the cost of living and lower purchasing power, but now the numbers also show it.
Assuming there are fewer orders, each order now needs to do more:
Increase retention, build repeat purchase. Make the customer remember the shop, not just the product.
Create something your customer can easily share on social platforms, to try and get new customers (to replace the lost ones).
I mentioned packing videos in previous posts, and you may know I’m a fan of them, but how about you?
Are you seeing fewer orders, or is it just reports seeing it?
What are you doing to make each order earn its keep? Any retention or word-of-mouth techniques?
Has anyone tried packing videos or other “personal touch” tactics? Did it work?
It feels like the shops that will survive this squeeze will be the ones that are either not impacted by it or those making sure each order does more than just fulfil a transaction.
When order count drops the reflex is to discount and chase volume, but in a margin-pressured downturn that is usually the trap. If everyone is fighting over fewer buyers, acquisition gets more expensive exactly when you can least afford it.
What actually holds revenue up when count falls is order value and repeat rate, not new traffic. A few things that have worked well:
Move attention to the post-purchase moment. Someone who just bought is your highest-intent audience and you already paid to acquire them, so a relevant thank-you-page or post-purchase offer lifts AOV without buying another click.
Be careful with sitewide discounts. They mostly hand margin to people who would have bought anyway. Conditional offers tied to the cart, like a spend threshold or bundling a slow mover with a hero product, buy you incremental units instead of discounting the sale you already had.
And the cheapest revenue in a downturn is the second order from someone who already trusts you. A simple win-back flow to lapsed buyers usually beats any acquisition channel on cost per order.
Are your numbers down more on traffic, conversion rate, or AOV? The answer changes which of these matters most.
We’ve noticed customers becoming more selective rather than completely stopping spending. For us, the focus has shifted from simply acquiring orders to increasing the value of each customer over time.
One thing that’s helped is creating more opportunities for customers to buy complementary products together instead of just a single item. Bundles, curated packs, and personalized products tend to perform better because they increase perceived value without relying entirely on discounts.
We’ve also found that customers are more likely to remember and recommend a store when the experience feels unique. Whether that’s personalized packaging, custom product options, or behind-the-scenes content, small touches often generate more word-of-mouth than another promotion.
I haven’t personally tested packing videos at scale, but I can definitely see how they could strengthen the customer experience, especially for brands with a strong community or handmade feel.
I agree that personalized/curated products increases perceived value and a shop with a unique experience is more easily remembered/recommended. Customers now need more reasons to buy, and like @lumine said, the second order from a customer is cheaper to acquire.
This is where I think packing videos can fit, as a way to make the order feel more personal, unique and memorable.
Self-ad: for anyone curious, you can test packing videos for free with Packclip. The free plan includes 3 packing videos per month.
I’m still interested to hear from anyone who has tried post-purchase tactics. I would like to know what actually works.
Hey there @RomainPackclip
We are seeing both sides. Some shops have less orders, others stay the same depending on their niche and how loyal their customers are. Largest wins as of lately for driving repeat purchases and increasing ROI, email flows, loyalty rewards, subscriptions, and thoughtful post purchase follow ups. When they are inline with the brand, personal touches such as packing videos or handwriten notes can make the experience better. Concentrating our efforts on retention, and driving up customer life time value can be a more sustainable approach than simply chasing after new customers.
From what we’ve seen, a downturn tends to reward order value and memorability over raw volume, which lines up with your two points.
When each order has to do more, the ones carrying a personal touch (a name, a date, a photo, a made-to-order detail) tend to both lift willingness to pay and travel further on social, because the buyer feels like they co-created it.
That’s also where your “shareable” and “repeat” goals overlap. Someone who personalized an item is more likely to post it, and more likely to come back for the next occasion: birthdays, anniversaries, and holidays give them a built-in reason. The product stops being comparable on price alone, which matters a lot when everyone else is discounting just to hold volume.
For merchants leaning into that route, apps like Teeinblue Product Personalizer handle the live-preview and custom-input part without dev time, so the “made for me” moment happens right on the product page.
On packing videos specifically, the stores we see get the most mileage pair the unboxing with a product that was already personal, so the clip has something worth filming. The personal product and the personal delivery reinforce each other.
I have noticed customers are definitely being more selective with their spending. Rather than chasing more traffic, we have been focusing on improving the customer experience clear communication, faster support, and follow-up emails to encourage repeat purchases.
In times like these, retaining existing customers is often more cost-effective than constantly trying to acquire new ones.
One thing I’d add is to measure “make each order count” by contribution margin, not just AOV. A bundle can look good in revenue but still hurt if it adds shipping weight, discount depth, or support time.
A practical sequence I’d test:
1. Find the products most often bought together, then create a small bundle with a real use-case, not just a random discount.
2. Add a post-purchase offer that complements the first purchase, but keep it optional and simple.
3. Segment win-back emails by what the customer bought last time, instead of sending the same coupon to everyone.
4. Watch refund rate, support tickets, and margin alongside conversion rate.
The stores that handle downturns best usually avoid blanket discounts and make the next purchase feel obvious.
This lines up with what I’ve felt building brands. When shoppers get more selective, the easy answer is to discount, but that usually just compresses margin further.
The better path is making the buying experience do more work. Clearer product education, faster answers, stronger trust, better recommendations, and fewer moments where the shopper has to “figure it out” alone.
That’s the reason I’m building Carti. I think a lot of CRO now comes from helping customers in real time, before they bounce or abandon cart. In a margin squeeze, converting existing traffic better can matter as much as acquiring more of it.
