Tracked our chargeback win rate for 6 months — the results genuinely surprised me

Payments + Shipping & Fulfilment
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Been selling on Shopify for 3 years. Always assumed chargebacks were just a cost of doing business and didn’t pay much attention to which ones we won or lost.

Finally started tracking properly earlier this year. Here’s what I found:

We were contesting about 60% of chargebacks we received. Of those, we were winning roughly 28%. I assumed that was normal.

Turns out the industry average for merchants who respond correctly is around 55-65%.

The difference wasn’t fraud rates — it was that every reason code has specific evidence requirements and we had no idea. Visa 10.4 (fraud disputes) needs device fingerprint data and prior purchase history. We were just submitting the order confirmation. Wrong evidence = automatic loss, doesn’t matter if you’re right.

Once we understood the evidence requirements per code, our win rate went from 28% to around 60% over the next 3 months.

Curious what others are seeing — do you actually track your chargeback win rate? Most merchants I talk to don’t know their number.

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Hello, @conorroche
This is a fantastic breakdown and a wake-up call for many Shopify merchants. Most store owners focus entirely on conversion rates but completely overlook Revenue Recovery through efficient chargeback management.

The shift from a 28% to a 60% win rate is a perfect example of why Contextual Evidence matters more than just proving an order exists. Submitting a simple order confirmation for a ‘Fraudulent’ reason code (like Visa 10.4) is essentially a guaranteed loss because it doesn’t prove the cardholder authorized the transaction.

For those looking to replicate your success, here are three key takeaways:

  • Segment by Reason Code: Don’t use a ‘one-size-fits-all’ response template.

  • Leverage Technical Data: For fraud claims, technical markers like IP addresses and device IDs are non-negotiable.

  • Track the Delta: If you don’t know your win rate, you can’t improve your bottom line.

Personally, I’ve seen that merchants who automate this data collection (using tools like Shopify Flow or 3rd party apps) tend to stay closer to that 65% industry benchmark. Great insight on the importance of ‘Evidence Requirements’.
Thanks!