How do you model for unknowns and out-of-your-control factors such as consumer sentiment and economic trends in your conversion rate optimization? How do you plan in advance for these?
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Hi Ned,
This is a great question.
The short answer is that you can’t, however that should never stop you doing the right thing for your customer.
Traditional conversion optimisation is always focused on improving financial metrics or their proxies, and can be extremely effective at driving incremental revenue.
However, it is always important to remember that metrics are myopic. It is entirely possible that you can improve your conversion rate whilst systematically destroying your business through poor experience and erosion of loyalty etc.
There are no easy ways to solve for this with maths and numbers, but trying to do so is a red herring. At the end of the day, what is the right thing to do for your customer? What is a great experience? An A/B test is not a decision it’s just one piece of information to help you make a decision.
The reason Amazon is Amazon is because they famously get this right. They do what is right for the customer even if it seems to make no financial sense.
Jonny
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